Highways, Market Access, and Urban Growth in China∗
نویسندگان
چکیده
We investigate the effects of the construction of the national highway system in China on local economic outcomes. The analysis employs three main approaches. The first is based on a structural model of Ricardian trade that provides an explicit description of the general equilibrium effects of changes in the highway network. The second involves reduced form estimates of the casual effects highways, which accommodates the non-random assignment of highways across locations. The third approach is a hybrid of the first two. Technique matters. The structural model suggests that access to domestic markets, but not to export markets, increases economic output. The reduced form estimates suggest the opposite conclusion and also point to the importance of highways in the rise of regional primate cities. These reduced form findings are consistent with export driven growth policies and central or provincial government policies favoring regional primate cities. In addition to informing policy, our results raise concerns about the use of quantitative results from Ricardian trade models in isolation for understanding how and the extent to which infrastructure drives regional growth. ∗The authors gratefully acknowledge financial support from the IGC (grant #1-VRU-VNEC-VXXXX89114) and from the Global Research Program on Spatial Development of Cities, funded by the Multi Donor Trust Fund on Sustainable Urbanization of the World Bank and supported by the UK Department for International Development. We received helpful comments from Gerald Carlino, Edward Glaeser, Samuel Marden, Daniel Sturm and Junfu Zhang and many seminar participants. We thank Ying Chen for research assistance.
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